NDC Overview / Default - NDC Overview / NDC Align
NDC Overview
This tool is designed to help users understand gaps between ambition in a country’s NDC and the country’s domestic governance landscape. This module provides a top-level overview of the country’s NDC.
Brazil has submitted an ambitious NDC. Thanks to Brazil’s pre-existing climate governance architecture, including the 2009 National Policy on Climate Change and the more recent Resolution 3/2023 of the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM) that establishes Brazil’s Climate Plan, the high-level direction set within the domestic policy landscape can be understood as mostly aligned with the NDC. Several policies are currently under development that should support the country reaching the level of ambition set out in the Second NDC.
Status of NDC in domestic law
Brazil’s NDC is directly applicable, as it is part of the Paris Agreement, which was incorporated into domestic law through Decree No. 9.073/2017. The Paris Agreement holds supra-legal status as a human rights treaty—placing it above ordinary legislation, a status reinforced by the recognition of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, reinforcing the judiciary’s role in overseeing its implementation.
01. Long term economy wide emissions reduction target
According to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Brazil has committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, covering all greenhouse gases. While the current NDC does not set an official quantitative target for 2050, it establishes a long-term political commitment to reaching net-zero emissions,
This graph provides an assessment of Brazil’s 2030 and 2035 targets and their alignment with 1.5C according to the ASCOR tool developed by the Transition Pathway Initiative Centre at LSE. The alignment assessment uses two complementary country-specific benchmarks aligned with 1.5C: one based on integrated assessment models that allocate mitigation effort while minimizing global costs and one based on a fair share approach.
A country’s fair share of the global carbon budget is calculated based on three equally-weighted variables: population, PPP-adjusted GDP per capita and historical emissions. These three variables respectively represent equality, capability and responsibility, which are the primary factors to consider when developing a fair share approach to climate mitigation. For more information, see the ASCOR methodology note. The graph presented here is a provisional assessment pending the feedback process that the ASCOR tool coordinates with country governments ahead of publishing its results and may differ slightly from what is published on the ASCOR tool in Q4 2025.
02. Interim emissions reduction targets
The NDC aims to secure a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 59 to 67 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. This target covers CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
"Brazil's NDC does not establish a formal quantitative target for 2030, as it does for 2035. However, there are references to the need to define a target for this year in other documents and regulations that are still under development.
The NDC also mentions that, following the Global Stocktake (GST) conducted at COP28, future emissions trajectories were developed to achieve Brazil’s already established climate targets for 2025, 2030, and 2050, with greater cost-effectiveness for the economy as a whole:
""Following the GST, Brazil recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 (decision 1/CMA.5, paragraph 27)."""
The specific target for 2035 is to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 59% to 67% compared to 2005 levels. This corresponds to an absolute emissions volume of 1.05 to 0.85 GtCO₂e. This target is formally established in Brazil’s NDC and it represents an interim target toward the country’s long-term commitment to climate neutrality by 2050.
While the 2035 target is clearly defined, additional sectoral policies and regulations may further refine Brazil’s mitigation and adaptation efforts, particularly through the Plano Clima (National Climate Change Plan).
03. Adaptation objectives
Brazil's NDC outlines the guidelines and objectives of the National Adaptation Strategy, which will be developed through the Climate Plan (Plano Clima), currently under development.
The National Adaptation Strategy contains the guidelines for the design and implementation of adaptation actions at the federal, state and municipal levels: 1. promoting sustainable development in its many dimensions, considering strategic sectors and themes for the country, with a view to reducing inequalities and to a just transition; 2. promoting climate justice based on the dimensions of gender, race, ethnicity, age, social class and other factors that influence vulnerability; 3. promoting environmental protection, conservation and preservation, guided by the principles of precaution and prevention; 4. multilevel and transversal governance, with a view to coherence, synergy and complementarity between strategies, taking into account territorial specificities; 5. promoting transparency and participatory processes with society; 6. mainstreaming adaptation into policies, programs and projects that may be affected by climate change, including through structuring initiatives and a long-term perspective; 7. strengthening institutional capacities at the different levels of government, including those needed to access sources of funding for adaptation and other means of implementation; 8. promoting co-benefits between adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; 9. adoption of the best available knowledge, based on science, good sectoral and societal practices, traditional knowledge and other sources deemed appropriate; 10. integrating incremental and transformational actions, based on an understanding of climate-related risks and their multiple conditioning factors, with different time horizons and scales of execution; 11. promoting public awareness of climate change, its causes, consequences and approaches to risks reduction; 1.2. adopting Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EbA) approaches, recognizing their potential to reduce climate risks and vulnerabilities in a systemic, flexible, socially just and cost-effective way, with mitigation co-benefits; 13. flexibility and adaptability of strategies, with context changes and revisions to the Plan to incorporate updates to the information and knowledge generated, as well as lessons learned. The National Adaptation Objectives reflect the integration between global commitments and local needs and priorities: 1. increasing the resilience of populations, cities, territories and infrastructures in facing the climate emergency; 2. promoting sustainable and resilient production and regular access to healthy food of adequate quality and quantity; 3. promoting water security, making water available in sufficient quality and quantity for multiple uses, such as supply, production, energy and ecosystems; 4. protect, conserve and strengthen ecosystems and biodiversity and ensure the provision of ecosystem services; 5. safeguarding the health and well-being of populations while respecting the ways of life of traditional peoples and communities; 6. ensuring sustainable and affordable energy security; 7. promoting socio-economic development and reducing inequalities; 8. protecting cultural heritage and preserving cultural practices and heritage sites against climate-related risks; 9. strengthening the vital role of the ocean and coastal zone in tackling climate change. Based on these guidelines, sixteen sectoral and thematic adaptation plans are being developed, incorporating awareness-raising, training and conceptual alignment actions on topics such as EbA, climate emergency, human mobility and climate justice. The plans are as follows: (i) agriculture and livestock; (ii) family farming; (iii) biodiversity; (iv) cities; (v) risk and disaster management; (vi) industry; (vii) energy; (viii) transportation; (ix) racial equality and combating racism; (x) traditional peoples and communities; (xi) indigenous peoples; (xii) water resources; (xiii) health; (xiv) food and nutritional security; (xv) ocean and coastal zone; and (xvi) tourism.
04. Principles for climate action
The NDC reinforces the principles for Brazilian climate action set out in Brazil's National Policy on Climate Change, emphasizing that Brazil’s climate strategy must contribute to reducing social, racial, and gender inequalities while advancing human rights. It highlights just transition as a core principle, ensuring that the shift to a low-carbon economy does not exacerbate inequalities. It also recognizes the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR), both internationally and domestically, linking climate action to sustainable development goals (SDGs) and social justice. Additionally, the NDC prioritizes transparency and public participation, ensuring that climate commitments are developed through inclusive dialogue (NDC - Pages 8, 10, 13).
Status of NDC in domestic law
Brazil’s NDC is directly applicable, as it is part of the Paris Agreement, which was incorporated into domestic law through Decree No. 9.073/2017. The Paris Agreement holds supra-legal status as a human rights treaty—placing it above ordinary legislation, a status reinforced by the recognition of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, reinforcing the judiciary’s role in overseeing its implementation.
01. Long term economy wide emissions reduction target
According to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Brazil has committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, covering all greenhouse gases. While the current NDC does not set an official quantitative target for 2050, it establishes a long-term political commitment to reaching net-zero emissions,
Brazil's committment to reaching climate neutrality by 2050 is reinforced in Resolution 3 of September 14, 2023, from the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM), which guides the update of the National Plan on Climate Change (Plano Clima) and establishes the Temporary Technical Groups on Mitigation (GTT - Mitigation) and Adaptation (GTT - Adaptation).
Article 2 of this Resolution states that the National Mitigation Strategy will define the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2030 and an indicative national reduction target for 2035. Additionally, in its sole paragraph, the Resolution specifies that these targets must be aligned with Brazil’s goal of achieving climate neutrality for GHG emissions by 2050.
There is a proposed Bill (PL 6,539/2019) that seeks to amend the National Policy on Climate Change (PNMC - Law No. 12.187/2009) to align it with the Paris Agreement and address new challenges related to climate change. If approved, this Bill will formally establish Brazil's commitment to climate neutrality by 2050 within the PNMC, modifying the wording of Article 12-A as follows:
The country, with the support of the instruments provided for in Articles 6 and 7, commits to: [...] II – neutralise 100% of its emissions by the year 2050, in accordance with the Long-Term National Strategy.
This graph provides an assessment of Brazil’s 2030 and 2035 targets and their alignment with 1.5C according to the ASCOR tool developed by the Transition Pathway Initiative Centre at LSE. The alignment assessment uses two complementary country-specific benchmarks aligned with 1.5C: one based on integrated assessment models that allocate mitigation effort while minimizing global costs and one based on a fair share approach.
A country’s fair share of the global carbon budget is calculated based on three equally-weighted variables: population, PPP-adjusted GDP per capita and historical emissions. These three variables respectively represent equality, capability and responsibility, which are the primary factors to consider when developing a fair share approach to climate mitigation. For more information, see the ASCOR methodology note. The graph presented here is a provisional assessment pending the feedback process that the ASCOR tool coordinates with country governments ahead of publishing its results and may differ slightly from what is published on the ASCOR tool in Q4 2025.
02. Interim emissions reduction targets
The NDC aims to secure a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 59 to 67 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. This target covers CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
Resolution CIM No. 3/2023 regulates the update of the National Plan on Climate Change (Plano Clima) and establishes that the National Mitigation Strategy must define the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2030 and an indicative target for 2035, ensuring its alignment with climate neutrality by 2050.
Although the 2035 target is clearly defined, Brazil has not yet formalised a quantitative target for 2030 in its current NDC. However, the Plano Clima and its future regulations may include additional interim targets for this period.
"Brazil's NDC does not establish a formal quantitative target for 2030, as it does for 2035. However, there are references to the need to define a target for this year in other documents and regulations that are still under development.
The NDC also mentions that, following the Global Stocktake (GST) conducted at COP28, future emissions trajectories were developed to achieve Brazil’s already established climate targets for 2025, 2030, and 2050, with greater cost-effectiveness for the economy as a whole:
""Following the GST, Brazil recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 (decision 1/CMA.5, paragraph 27)."""
Resolution CIM No. 3/2023, which regulates the update of the National Plan on Climate Change (Plano Clima), states that the National Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies must present national mitigation and adaptation targets for 2030 and indicative targets for 2035, in addition to sectoral mitigation and adaptation plans up to 2030. This suggests that the Brazilian government intends to define a commitment for 2030, but there is still no officially established percentage.
The specific target for 2035 is to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 59% to 67% compared to 2005 levels. This corresponds to an absolute emissions volume of 1.05 to 0.85 GtCO₂e. This target is formally established in Brazil’s NDC and it represents an interim target toward the country’s long-term commitment to climate neutrality by 2050.
While the 2035 target is clearly defined, additional sectoral policies and regulations may further refine Brazil’s mitigation and adaptation efforts, particularly through the Plano Clima (National Climate Change Plan).
Brazil has adopted an absolute emissions target in its NDC and established the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE) through Law No. 15.042/2024. The SBCE sets sectoral emissions limits and enables allowance trading, creating a regulated carbon market. While it does not yet constitute a comprehensive carbon budget, its legal framework allows for future regulation that could move it in that direction.
Some experts consider Brazil’s absolute NDC target as already aligning with the concept of a carbon budget. Although the current system is more flexible than others, such as those in the EU and California, it shares important structural features and could be further developed into a stricter, economy-wide emissions cap.
Given these conditions, Brazil’s approach can be described as being under development toward a carbon budget system.
03. Adaptation objectives
Brazil's NDC outlines the guidelines and objectives of the National Adaptation Strategy, which will be developed through the Climate Plan (Plano Clima), currently under development.
The National Adaptation Strategy contains the guidelines for the design and implementation of adaptation actions at the federal, state and municipal levels: 1. promoting sustainable development in its many dimensions, considering strategic sectors and themes for the country, with a view to reducing inequalities and to a just transition; 2. promoting climate justice based on the dimensions of gender, race, ethnicity, age, social class and other factors that influence vulnerability; 3. promoting environmental protection, conservation and preservation, guided by the principles of precaution and prevention; 4. multilevel and transversal governance, with a view to coherence, synergy and complementarity between strategies, taking into account territorial specificities; 5. promoting transparency and participatory processes with society; 6. mainstreaming adaptation into policies, programs and projects that may be affected by climate change, including through structuring initiatives and a long-term perspective; 7. strengthening institutional capacities at the different levels of government, including those needed to access sources of funding for adaptation and other means of implementation; 8. promoting co-benefits between adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; 9. adoption of the best available knowledge, based on science, good sectoral and societal practices, traditional knowledge and other sources deemed appropriate; 10. integrating incremental and transformational actions, based on an understanding of climate-related risks and their multiple conditioning factors, with different time horizons and scales of execution; 11. promoting public awareness of climate change, its causes, consequences and approaches to risks reduction; 1.2. adopting Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EbA) approaches, recognizing their potential to reduce climate risks and vulnerabilities in a systemic, flexible, socially just and cost-effective way, with mitigation co-benefits; 13. flexibility and adaptability of strategies, with context changes and revisions to the Plan to incorporate updates to the information and knowledge generated, as well as lessons learned. The National Adaptation Objectives reflect the integration between global commitments and local needs and priorities: 1. increasing the resilience of populations, cities, territories and infrastructures in facing the climate emergency; 2. promoting sustainable and resilient production and regular access to healthy food of adequate quality and quantity; 3. promoting water security, making water available in sufficient quality and quantity for multiple uses, such as supply, production, energy and ecosystems; 4. protect, conserve and strengthen ecosystems and biodiversity and ensure the provision of ecosystem services; 5. safeguarding the health and well-being of populations while respecting the ways of life of traditional peoples and communities; 6. ensuring sustainable and affordable energy security; 7. promoting socio-economic development and reducing inequalities; 8. protecting cultural heritage and preserving cultural practices and heritage sites against climate-related risks; 9. strengthening the vital role of the ocean and coastal zone in tackling climate change. Based on these guidelines, sixteen sectoral and thematic adaptation plans are being developed, incorporating awareness-raising, training and conceptual alignment actions on topics such as EbA, climate emergency, human mobility and climate justice. The plans are as follows: (i) agriculture and livestock; (ii) family farming; (iii) biodiversity; (iv) cities; (v) risk and disaster management; (vi) industry; (vii) energy; (viii) transportation; (ix) racial equality and combating racism; (x) traditional peoples and communities; (xi) indigenous peoples; (xii) water resources; (xiii) health; (xiv) food and nutritional security; (xv) ocean and coastal zone; and (xvi) tourism.
Defined by the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM), via Resolution 3/2023, the new Climate Plan will include the “National Adaptation Strategy”, with sixteen sectoral adaptation plans.
It also establishes that the National Adaptation Strategy shall include, among other elements, principles, guidelines, and national adaptation priorities; guidelines for the development of sectoral adaptation plans; guidelines for integrating adaptation actions into climate action plans; and that sectoral adaptation plans must include, among other provisions, sectoral adaptation objectives and priorities.
Law No. 14.904/2024 establishes guidelines for the development of climate change adaptation plans.
In addition to the ongoing development of the National Adaptation Strategy under the Climate Plan, Brazil’s 2016 National Adaptation Plan (PNA), established by Ministerial Ordinance No. 150 of May 10, 2016, remains in effect as an important framework for managing climate risks and adaptation actions.
The PNA’s primary objective is to reduce climate vulnerability and enhance resilience by integrating adaptation actions across key sectors, including agriculture, biodiversity, cities, health, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risk management. The plan follows an iterative and dynamic approach, ensuring that adaptation strategies evolve based on new scientific data, climate projections, and socio-economic developments.
Although the PNA is currently under review, its principles and structure continue to influence Brazil’s adaptation planning, serving as a foundation for the National Adaptation Strategy outlined in the latest NDC. The NDC explicitly commits to revising the PNA and enhancing adaptation efforts through sectoral planning, institutional coordination, and engagement with vulnerable communities.
04. Principles for climate action
The NDC reinforces the principles for Brazilian climate action set out in Brazil's National Policy on Climate Change, emphasizing that Brazil’s climate strategy must contribute to reducing social, racial, and gender inequalities while advancing human rights. It highlights just transition as a core principle, ensuring that the shift to a low-carbon economy does not exacerbate inequalities. It also recognizes the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR), both internationally and domestically, linking climate action to sustainable development goals (SDGs) and social justice. Additionally, the NDC prioritizes transparency and public participation, ensuring that climate commitments are developed through inclusive dialogue (NDC - Pages 8, 10, 13).
Brazil’s National Policy on Climate Change (PNMC - Law No. 12.187/2009) established key principles guiding climate action, ensuring that policies promote climate justice, just transition, equity, transparency, and social participation.
The PNMC (Article 3) outlines principles such as precaution, prevention, citizen participation, sustainable development, and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) at the international level. It mandates that all climate actions must seek to reduce the impacts of anthropogenic activities on the climate system, distribute responsibilities equitably among economic sectors and affected populations, and integrate national policies with state and municipal climate initiatives (PNMC - Article 3).
